Alcaraz’s 98-of-101 Holds at the 2025 US Open: Serve-First Hard-Court Blueprint for Coaches

The Serve-First Era Is Here

Carlos Alcaraz just won the 2025 US Open by doing something brutally simple and incredibly hard to stop: he held serve almost every time. He finished the fortnight with 98 holds in 101 service games, and in the final he doubled Jannik Sinner’s winner count. Those two facts alone describe the modern hard-court arms race. The first shot sets the tone, the second ends the argument, and anything after ball three is survival. For a deeper breakdown of these patterns, see our internal look at the 98-of-101 serve blueprint.

If you coach juniors or guide a high-level player, this matters. It means your practice blocks should bias toward serving patterns, first-strike forehands, and an earlier return position that takes time away. The rest of this breakdown turns the New York data into coachable habits you can measure next week.

What the New York Numbers Say

In the final, Alcaraz produced 42 winners to Sinner’s 21 and was broken just once. Across the tournament he won 98 of 101 service games. He also dropped only nine points behind his first serve in the championship match. All are drawn from the ATP’s post-final report, which frames the scale of the performance. See the official summary for the key figures, including the 98-of-101 stat and the 42-to-21 winner split: Alcaraz’s 98 of 101 service games won.

What do those numbers actually represent on court?

• First-strike serving to the body to remove angle and freeze returns.
• A scripted +1 forehand, taken early, to the bigger side or into a pre-marked lane.
• Return stance a half step earlier, so the return lands deeper and sooner, which raises the server’s error rate on the third ball.
• Rally compression, with most points decided by shot three or four.

For additional video-friendly ideas from the final, tap our internal tactical blueprint and drills.

Four Pillars of Near-Unbreakable Holds

1. Body serves as the default, not the bailout. On hard courts, body serves prevent stretch and deny the returner their favorite swing path. New York rewarded Alcaraz’s heavy body pattern because it shrank the returner’s options and fed his first forehand.

2. Pre-planned +1 forehand lanes. The first groundstroke after the serve went to a lane, not a general area. Lane 1: inside-out to the backhand. Lane 2: body-through-the-middle to jam and follow in. Lane 3: inside-in to steal the red carpet down the line. Choosing before the toss quickens the decision and increases swing speed.

3. Variable tempo, same picture. Alcaraz presented a similar toss and stance, yet varied pace and height. That kept Sinner off-balance even when the target repeated.

4. Third-ball court position. Because the return arrived earlier and lower, Alcaraz’s contact stayed in front, which protected his defense if the first strike did not finish the point.

Translate It to Coachable Drills

Below are on-court sessions you can run with juniors and tour-level players. Set a phone tripod at the back fence for instant video. Keep score. Publish targets on the whiteboard so effort stays measurable.

1. Body-serve 60 test

• Setup: Two cones six feet apart centered on the returner’s torso target on both deuce and ad courts.
• Task: 20 first serves to body, 20 second serves to body. Goal is 60 percent hit rate into the channel, with at least 70 percent of those returns landing shorter than the service line.
• Scoring: +2 for a cone hit, +1 for channel, 0 outside channel, −1 if the returner generates a deep, aggressive reply.
• Progression: After every body serve, feed a neutral ball and force a forehand from the server, who must play to Lane 2 and step inside the baseline.

2. +1 forehand lanes circuit

• Setup: Chalk three lanes: Lane 1 inside-out, Lane 2 middle body seam, Lane 3 inside-in. Put a short rope on the ground to mark a forward contact line.
• Task: Serve wide, step across, hit Lane 1 on deuce, Lane 3 on ad, then recover with a split inside the baseline.
• Targets: 15-ball blocks, minimum 10 lanes hit, with average contact one foot in front of the lead hip.
• Progression: Add a live returner whose job is to chip middle. Server must respond with Lane 2 and then close with an approach volley.

3. Two-speed same-look serve patterning

• Setup: Same toss, two paces. First ball at 95 percent to body, second at 80 percent with more shape to the T.
• Task: Alternate pace within the same target picture. The returner calls out “fast” or “slow” after contact. If they misread, server gets a bonus point.
• Targets: 10 consecutive correct disguises before moving targets.

4. Early return stance and block depth

• Setup: Returner starts with heels on the baseline, split step timed to toss release.
• Task: Quiet hands, short backswing, drive through the middle third. The goal is depth and time pressure, not angle.
• Targets: 15 returns per side, at least 10 landing deep half of the court, apex below net height.
• Progression: Move returner six inches inside the baseline once depth target is met.

5. Body-serve read and handspeed for the returner

• Setup: Server aims only body and T. Returner reads heel lift and shoulder line.
• Task: If jammed, abandon the backswing and bunt with a stable wrist to center. If T, step across and redirect down the middle to deny the +1 forehand.
• Targets: 70 percent returns in play, 60 percent of those past the service line.

6. Three-ball tiebreaker

• Setup: First to 7, serve alternates. Points are live for only three shots per side. If the ball crosses more than three times, the point auto-stops and is replayed.
• Goal: Train decisiveness and commitment to patterns under score pressure.

Why This Works on Hard Courts

Hard courts reward time theft. The surface gives you a predictable bounce and the stadium air in New York kept the ball fast enough that early contact magnified the advantage. Body serves on this surface remove the returner’s ability to create angle. A pre-committed +1 forehand stops overthinking. The earlier return position raises average contact height for the server’s third ball, which keeps the initiative.

This is the geometry of dominance: shorten the first exchange, earn the first short ball, then finish before the baseline patterns can equalize.

Sabalenka’s Title Defense Shows the Same Shift on the WTA

Aryna Sabalenka backed up her 2024 title with a straight-sets win over Amanda Anisimova in the 2025 US Open final. The stat profile looked like a clinic in serve plus return efficiency. From the WTA’s official match stats: Sabalenka won 60.9 percent of her service points, 51.5 percent of her return points, converted five of six break points, and limited double faults while Anisimova’s second serve return did damage. Those are elite numbers in a major final, and they mirror the men’s trend toward serve-first, return-early patterns. See the full numbers here: WTA final match stats, Sabalenka vs Anisimova.

For coaches, note especially the 62.5 percent second-serve points won for Sabalenka and the 64.3 percent second-serve return points captured. That speaks to two skills you can train this week:

• Second-serve bravery with shape, not just pace, then a pre-scripted +1 forehand.
• Return contact made earlier and flatter, with the target through the middle third to deny the opponent’s patterns.

Two drills to mirror Sabalenka’s profile:

• Second-serve shape to targets: 30-ball block, 15 wide, 15 body. Measure net clearance with cones at two racket-lengths above the tape, then grade depth by landing beyond the service line. Goal is 70 percent successful shapes with at least 10 inducing short replies.

• Middle-third return audit: 20 returns per side against second serves. A successful rep is past the service line, within the center 12 feet, apex below net height. Goal is 12 of 20 each side before moving the stance six inches inside.

The Mental Layer: Pre-Commit to Reduce Decision Time

Both champions simplified choices before the toss. Decide body or wide, decide Lane 1, 2, or 3 for the +1. On return, decide depth-first, not angle-first. Pre-commitment chops reaction time by a fraction of a second, which is often the whole rally on Laykold.

To train it, script a serve card with three patterns per side and do not deviate for the set. Review outcomes after. Athletes learn the value of staying on a plan long enough for pressure to force opponent errors. For broader context on how coaching workflows are evolving, see our internal coaching and AI blueprint.

Off-Court Matters Even More When Rallies Get Shorter

Shorter rallies do not mean less fitness. They mean different fitness. You need first-step explosiveness, torso stiffness at contact, and the nervous system freshness to repeat high-output actions under stress.

• Strength: heavy trap-bar deadlifts and split squats, low rep, high force, paired with medicine-ball rotational throws to map weightroom force to forehand speed.
• Speed: three-step acceleration starts and side-shuffle flys with laser timing. Track your first five meters.
• Elasticity: pogo jumps and low-amplitude hops with a metronome to improve stiffness for serves and split steps.
• Nervous system freshness: cap high-intent sets early, then stop. Quality beats volume when the first two balls decide points.

Off-court training is the most underused lever in tennis. OffCourt unlocks it with personalized physical and mental programs built from how you actually play. If your match chart shows too many long, neutral rallies on hard courts, OffCourt will bias your work toward first-step power, serve rhythm, and pre-point routines that free you to commit.

Watch List for the Asian Swing

• Alcaraz heads to Tokyo for his debut at the ATP 500, carrying the same serve-first template that just won New York. How often does he go body on first serves indoors, and does he keep the +1 forehand to Lane 2 when the court plays a touch quicker?
• Sinner leads the field in Beijing. Look for earlier return positions and more body-backhand patterns on big points as he rolls out the small changes he referenced after New York. Track whether his first-strike backhand reclaims the middle.
• For your players, set a TV audit: in each match, tally body serves, first-ball directions, and how often the returner stands inside the baseline at 30-all or later. Turn the broadcast into a scouting clinic.

A One-Week Practice Plan You Can Copy

• Monday: Serve day. 200 serves total with 60 percent body targets, +1 lanes circuit, finish with 3-ball tiebreaker. Lift heavy lower body.
• Tuesday: Return day. Early stance depth audit, body-serve reads, then live games to 11 starting 0–30 to train break-start pressure. Med-ball and short elastic plyos.
• Wednesday: Blend. Two-speed same-look serve patterning into first-strike points. Situational points from 30–30 on both sides. Mobility and recovery.
• Thursday: Competition. Two tiebreak sets where every point is capped at three shots per side. Upper-body strength and medicine-ball power.
• Friday: Film review with clips tagged by serve target and +1 lane. Light speed session. Travel or taper.

Coach’s Checklist for Hard Courts

• Do we know our top two body-serve targets on each side and can we hit them on command?
• Do we pre-commit to lanes on the +1 forehand, and are those lanes visible on the court in practice?
• Do our returns land deep and early through the middle third often enough to disrupt the opponent’s +1?
• Are we measuring first-step speed and contact in front, not just rally tolerance?

Bottom Line

Alcaraz’s performance in New York was not a one-off heater. It was a roadmap. Serve to shrink space, decide the point with your first forehand, and take the return earlier to steal time. Sabalenka’s title defense shows the same shift on the women’s side. If you coach juniors or run a high-performance program, bake these patterns into your weekly plan, track them, and expect results fast on hard courts.

Ready to build this into your program with structure and measurement? Open OffCourt and start a two-week Serve-First block. OffCourt delivers personalized on-court sessions and off-court strength, speed, and mental work designed around how you actually play.

For reference on the original match numbers, see the ATP’s Alcaraz’s 98 of 101 service games won and the WTA’s WTA final match stats, Sabalenka vs Anisimova.