Why 98 of 101 matters
On September 7, 2025 in New York, Carlos Alcaraz reclaimed No. 1 and lifted his second US Open title. Across seven matches he won 98 of 101 service games. That is not a hot streak. That is a hold machine built on precise targets, airtight plus-one patterns, and a calm, repeatable between-point routine. The ATP match report confirms he won 98 of 101 service games. For more context on the stat and pattern families, see our breakdown of Alcaraz's 98 of 101 holds.
This weekend, September 19–21, the stage moves indoors to San Francisco for the Laver Cup. On Day 1, Alcaraz partnered Jakub Mensik for a straight-sets doubles win over Taylor Fritz and Alex Michelsen, and Team Europe finished Friday with a 3-1 lead according to Reuters Europe leads 3-1 after Day 1. What does the US Open hold rate tell us about serve-plus-one tennis and how should you adjust it to a faster, lower-bouncing indoor hard court at the Chase Center? Let’s translate the blueprint into drills, mental resets, and tactical tweaks you can use this weekend.
The blueprint behind the hold
Hold efficiency is a composite skill. Alcaraz’s number did not come from raw speed. It came from stacking small advantages that multiply.
- First-ball clarity. Before he tosses, he already knows the plus-one play based on the location. The serve does not create options. It selects the next pattern.
- Margin built in. His targets are not paint. They are repeatable zones that keep the first ball above net height and get depth without flirting with lines.
- Tempo control. He resets between points to keep his arousal level steady. The routine removes volatility on big points.
Translate that to your own game with three levers: where you serve, where you hit the plus-one, and how you regulate your system between points.
Serve locations that unlock the plus-one
Alcaraz’s serves at the US Open created predictable first-ball looks. Indoors you get a truer bounce and a slightly quicker court. That makes his location choices even more valuable.
- Deuce court, wide slice to the sideline. This pulls a right-hander off court and opens the inside-in forehand to the vacant deuce lane. If the returner cheats wide, go body to jam the swing.
- Deuce court, T flat or heavy. This rushes the backhand. The first ball is often a forehand up the middle through the same channel, not an angle. It is a depth play that keeps you in control.
- Ad court, wide slider. That is the classic forehand forehand pattern. The first ball is inside-out to the ad corner with height, then finish inside-in if the opponent floats short.
- Ad court, body to the hip. When opponents sit on the wide, the body serve produces blocks that land central. That is your green light for a heavy forehand to the backhand corner.
Key idea for juniors and college players: choose a location that dictates one forehand option you can execute 8 times out of 10. Do not fish for winners on the serve. Fish for the rally you want.
Plus-one forehand depth, not just direction
The US Open patterns often turned on depth. Indoors you still want depth first, angle second.
- Depth target rule. Your first forehand after the serve should land past the service line and within a corridor 6 to 8 feet from the sideline. If you miss, miss long before you miss short. Long buys time to recover. Short invites counterpunches.
- Rise and hit. When the return is at shoulder height on a low skid indoor bounce, hit on the rise with a chest-high contact to take time. Your shape is heavy and through, not loopy.
- Two-ball finish. Expect the second forehand to close. First ball establishes depth. Second ball finds the open court. Do not rush the winner on ball one.
For targeted return-plus-one work, try our focused session on the return plus-one forehand strike window.
Between-point routine that travels
Serve-plus-one quality erodes fast if your internal tempo drifts. Alcaraz’s routine is visible and consistent. He gives himself a full reset, then commits to the next play. You can model that with a simple script.
- Step 1 Reset. Turn your back to the court for two seconds. Eyes on a fixed point. Towel if needed. This breaks the emotional loop of the last point.
- Step 2 Breathe. Inhale 4 count through the nose, exhale 6 count through the mouth. Two cycles on routine points, three cycles on break points. Exhale longer than inhale to drop heart rate.
- Step 3 Scan. Where is the opponent standing. What are they baiting. Pick one serve and one plus-one.
- Step 4 Commit. Ball bounce count stays the same on big points. Same toss speed. Same rhythm.
Consistency in the micro details is how the serve motion stays clean on 30 40.
Indoor hard court adjustments for San Francisco
You will likely get a faster court with less wind and a lower bounce than New York. Make these tactical tweaks. For movement specifics, use our indoor hard court footwork guide.
- Shrink your angle aim. Out wide targets should be 6 inches more conservative than outdoors. The ball skids and rebounds straighter, so you need less angle to pull the return off the court.
- Add body at 30 30. Indoors, body serves crowd the returner and produce central replies that are perfect for the first forehand. Use it as your percentage play.
- Raise net clearance on ball one. Aim 24 to 30 inches over the tape on the plus-one. Indoors that still produces depth and reduces net errors that give away breaks.
- Return position. Against bigger servers on a slick court, take a half step back to buy reaction time on first serve, then hold or step in on second serves. On second serve, attack with a compact punch and get the ball deep through the middle to take away angles.
Practical drills you can run this weekend
These are built for a 60 to 90 minute session and scalable for juniors, college squads, and pros.
Drill 1 Serve location ladder
Goal: earn three consecutive locations in each box, then climb the ladder under pressure.
Setup:
- Cones on four targets per side: deuce wide, deuce T, ad wide, ad body.
- Score a point only when the ball lands in the target box and your plus-one forehand lands deep past the service line.
Progression:
- Accuracy round. Hit 6 per box with no score, log percentage.
- Ladder round. You must hit deuce wide, then deuce T, then ad wide, then ad body, in order. If you miss a target or the plus-one depth, you repeat that rung.
- Pressure round. Start 0 30. You have to hold with three rungs total. Miss two in a row and the game is lost. Repeat three games.
Coaching cues:
- Same toss speed on wide and T. Watch for drift when players try to carve the wide.
- Freeze finish on the plus-one to reinforce balance.
Drill 2 Plus-one forehand depth targets
Goal: raise the floor of your first forehand and build the two-ball finish.
Setup:
- Lay a 3 foot depth strip two feet behind the service line in deuce and ad corners.
- Coach or partner feeds returns that simulate deuce wide, deuce T, ad wide, ad body.
Scoring:
- Ball 1 must land past the strip for one point. Ball 2 must land to the open court for a second point. Play to 15. If Ball 1 lands short of the strip, subtract a point.
Add-ons:
- Second serve mode. Start with a second serve to force a tighter plus-one window.
- Footwork callouts. Coach calls inside-in or inside-out on contact to train late decision commitment.
Drill 3 Pressure tiebreak holds
Goal: normalize serving under scoreboard stress.
Setup:
- Play a 10 point tiebreak but you only serve. Opponent returns every point from a live hand feed or serve machine.
- You must win at least 7 points to pass. If you reach 5 5 or worse, you switch to second serves only for the rest of the tiebreak.
Variations:
- Ad only breaker. Serve only to the ad court for 10 points to stress the wide pattern and inside-out plus-one.
- Body bias. You must choose body on 4 of the first 6 points to encode the pattern.
Drill 4 Doubles first strike builder
Given the Laver Cup doubles emphasis, tune first strikes for the pair. For more specific matchups and formations, check our guide to Laver Cup doubles tactics in San Francisco.
Setup:
- Server aims deuce wide or ad body only. Net player starts active with split on contact.
- If return is blocked short middle, net player must cut and finish. If return is deep, server plays plus-one heavy middle to freeze the return team.
Scoring:
- First strike completed within two balls is 2 points. Any rally beyond four balls is replayed. Play first to 10, then switch roles.
A mental script for big points
Pressure is rarely about the stroke. It is about cognitive overload. Use this short script.
- Cue word. One word that describes your serve shape. Tall. Heavy. Snap. Pick one and say it softly as you bounce the ball.
- Breath ratio. 4 in, 6 out. Two cycles. On break point, add one extra exhale.
- Commitment line. Whisper the play. Deuce T then middle. Ad wide then inside out. Keep it specific and short.
- Visualize the bounce height. See the ball peaking above the tape on the plus-one. This primes your net clearance and contact height.
This is not superstition. It is bandwidth management. The ritual lets the motor pattern run without interference.
Scouting indoor returns this weekend
If you are coaching against a big first serve indoors, adjust your return toolbox.
- Two backhand shapes. One punch through the middle at shoulder height. One chip with underspin that dies inside the service box when you are stretched wide. Call the shape before the toss.
- Body survival return. When jammed, shorten the takeback and hit the outside of the ball to carve it back deep middle. Do not try to redirect down the line on body serves unless you are early.
- Second serve strike. Step in on the toss and commit to height over the net. Aim deep center mass to start the neutral. If the opponent serves and volleys, dip at the feet with a compact loop.
Micro tactics for the Laver Cup set format
The Laver Cup format piles pressure quickly. Indoors the scoreboard swings are brutal.
- 30 30 is a body serve count. Mark it on your playsheet. If you miss first serve, repeat the body on second. You want a central reply to start the two-ball finish.
- First point of games. Use your comfort pattern. If that is deuce T then middle, lock it in. Starting with a lead is even more valuable in a race to six.
- Return games. Pick one game per set to push to 30 on the opponent’s serve. That removes the mental tax of trying to break every game and keeps your serve focus clean.
What Day 1 told us
Alcaraz’s doubles win with Mensik highlighted two ideas that apply to your weekend matches. First, serve body more in doubles indoors. It jams the returner and sets your partner for a first volley. Second, hit the plus-one heavy middle to freeze both opponents and give your partner time to poach. Europe’s 3-1 lead after Friday reflects ruthless first-strike discipline and fewer free points leaked on return games. Expect more of the same as point values rise on Saturday and Sunday.
How to coach this in one session
Here is a 75 minute template for Saturday practice that bakes in the blueprint.
- 0–10 minutes. Dynamic warm up. Short court forehands with height. Serve rhythm with two breath cycles per toss.
- 10–25 minutes. Serve location ladder. One full ladder plus a pressure round starting 0 30.
- 25–40 minutes. Plus-one depth targets. Two 15 point games. Second serve mode for the last 8 balls.
- 40–55 minutes. Pressure tiebreak holds. One 10 point breaker per player. Losers repeat with second serves only.
- 55–70 minutes. Doubles first strike builder. First to 10 with server’s partner on the hunt.
- 70–75 minutes. Cool down and debrief. Log serve percentages, plus-one depth rate, and any choke points on 30 30.
If you want a systematic way to track this, OffCourt can help. Off-court training is the most underused lever in tennis. OffCourt unlocks it with personalized physical and mental programs built from how you actually play. You can mirror the drill goals in your training plan and map them to breath work sessions so your between-point routine becomes automatic.
The takeaway
The lesson from 98 of 101 is not that you need a 135 mph bomb. It is that you need a clear plan that ties serve location to a reliable plus-one, wrapped in a routine that keeps your tempo level when the set gets tight. Indoors at the Laver Cup the margin for error is smaller and the value of the first strike is higher. Choose locations that script the rally. Aim for depth on the first forehand. Use body serves on big points. Control your breath so the motion stays the same on 30 40 as it does at 15 0.
Put the ladder on the court. Run the depth strip game. Play the pressure tiebreaks. Then watch your own hold percentage climb toward the level that wins majors.
Ready to build your hold machine. Set up this weekend’s plan in OffCourt, then bring the blueprint to your next match and make the first strike your superpower.