The mission that defines his Australian summer
Alex de Minaur has set a clear target for the Australian summer. He has said he is adding lean muscle and upping his aggression to finally flip two matchups that have blocked his progress at the very top of the sport. The goal is simple to say and hard to do: turn the Sinner and Alcaraz walls into doors.
Public comments out of his camp point to a deliberate physical build and a more assertive identity on court. Reports highlight a body transformation that aims to give him heavier serves and a more damaging first strike, not just more endurance. That is the north star, because speed alone has not been enough against the two most explosive baseliners in the game. For context on his offseason intent, see this summary of his plan to add muscle and aggression in the months before Melbourne, which he openly embraced in December: De Minaur details body transformation.
Across the next two weeks, the United Cup from January 2 to 11, 2026 will be the laboratory. The Australian Open later in January will be the exam. Here is the practical blueprint for de Minaur’s power project, and the on-court signs that will confirm whether the work is taking hold.
Why Sinner and Alcaraz have had his number
Sinner and Alcaraz both compress time. They take the ball early, hit through the court, and turn neutral balls into offense. De Minaur’s calling card is speed and anticipation. Against most of the tour, that is enough. Against these two, court coverage buys him survival, not initiative.
The pattern is consistent.
- When de Minaur’s first serve lands short of elite pace or depth, Sinner and Alcaraz block or punch deep returns that force him back. His first ball arrives shoulder high with little time to load.
- In baseline exchanges, his forehand often carries safe height and moderate spin. It is reliable, but the ball can sit up. Against Sinner’s two-hander and Alcaraz’s forehand, that becomes feeding.
- When score pressure rises, de Minaur sometimes defaults to rally tolerance. The rally lasts longer, but control shifts to the opponent.
For the psychological and tactical edge in their rivalry, see our breakdown of Sinner Alcaraz mental tactics.
To reverse the trend, he does not need to become a different player. He needs to make the first two shots after the serve and the first two shots after the return hit harder, lower, and earlier.
The physical plan: add watts to the first two shots
Power is not just muscle mass. It is force applied in the right direction in a small time window. For a tennis engine like de Minaur, the offseason goal is to convert his elite linear speed into rotational power without losing foot speed.
What that means in practice:
- Lower body: more force in the ground. Think trap bar deadlifts, split squats, and loaded jumps to raise peak force and rate of force development. The measurable goal is faster down and up in the serve and a firmer base on open-stance forehands.
- Torso and hips: medicine ball rotational throws and cable lifts that emphasize hip lead, torso lag, then whip. The sequence is hips, torso, arm, not all at once.
- Upper body: pull-up variations, presses, and forearm work for racket head stability. The objective is not bulk for its own sake. It is controllable mass that stabilizes the shoulder and forearm at contact.
If this goes right, two things happen in matches: the serve jumps a tier and the forehand gains weight. The rest of his game benefits because heavier first strikes shorten points on his terms.
Serve plan: three levers to pull now
You can drill these patterns with our one-serve drills for plus-one patterns.
1) Baseline pace targets
- First serve: raise the average into the 195 to 205 kilometers per hour band, which is about 121 to 127 miles per hour, without dropping first serve percentage below the low 60s.
- Second serve: lift average speed by 5 to 8 kilometers per hour with more kick to the backhand body, especially on big points.
This is not about radar hunting. It is about reliably accessing a new speed floor so that even his safe first serves are no longer sitters.
2) Location discipline
- Ad court: mix T and body to freeze the two-hander and set up forehand first balls. Against Sinner, body serves jam the two-hander and limit his ability to take the return early. Against Alcaraz, going body first then T later disrupts his rhythm to run around.
- Deuce court: go T more often to the backhand. That removes their favorite pattern, which is to redirect a wide serve back behind the server.
3) The plus-one map
- If the serve goes T from deuce, look to step around and drive inside in to the opponent’s backhand. Keep the swing compact and strike through the outer half of the ball to stay low over the net.
- If the serve goes body from ad, expect a shorter, central return. Take it on the rise back behind the returner. The aim is a strike that lands two to three feet inside the baseline, not a looping reset.
A practical drill: four-ball ladders. Serve to a target, then immediately hit a fed first ball to a marked lane, then two live balls with the same shape. Track whether depth extends beyond the service line on at least three of the four.
Forehand weight: lower, later, heavier
De Minaur’s forehand is accurate and fast through contact, but the shape can be conservative. Against Sinner and Alcaraz, a ball that peaks high and drops short invites trouble. He needs a trajectory that travels lower through the court and lands deeper.
Three simple cues shape that change:
- Contact point: one shoulder width farther in front on attack balls. That reduces lift and produces a flatter, heavier strike.
- Height over net: use a visual tunnel about the height of two tennis balls above net tape for drives. Save the high, heavy shape for deep defense or for topspin lobs.
- Spin plus pace: think of revolutions per minute and speed as a ratio, not a trade. Add 10 to 15 percent more racket speed with a slightly more closed racket face. The ball should rotate more while flying faster, then dip late.
To train this, combine cross-court live hitting with target zones that start at the service line and extend three feet from the baseline. Every ball that lands short of the service line is a reset. Every ball that lands on or beyond the zone is a win. Track wins and resets, not just makes and misses.
Return position and first ball patterns
Sinner takes the return early and flattens it. Alcaraz loves to change direction off the return and then sprint forward. De Minaur’s speed lets him stand close and react, but that plays into their hand. He needs two distinct looks.
- First serve returns: start half a step farther back than his default, with a small hop forward at toss release. This gives him fractionally more time to read location. The priority is depth down the middle third to neutralize angles.
- Second serve returns: move in and commit to a drive at the opponent’s backhand hip. Both players thrive on wide second serves that open up a forehand first ball.Taking that ball early into the body forces them to hit up, not out.
After the return, the first ball must be predetermined.
- Versus Sinner: expect backhand cross as the first reply. Pre-plan a backhand line change early in each game. Even a neutral ball down the line changes the geometry and steals time from his greatest strength, which is backhand timing.
- Versus Alcaraz: avoid feeding the forehand run-around on deuce points. If you must go cross-court from the ad corner, go heavy and low into the backhand body so he cannot step around cleanly.
The coaching key is to remove indecision. Default offensive play on second serve returns. Default neutralizing play on first serve returns. Let the score and location choose between line and cross.
The mental reset that makes aggression stick
Playing with more power means accepting more misses in the short term. That is where de Minaur’s mental framework matters. Here is a simple between-points script that supports the new identity.
- Breathe out longer than you breathe in. Think four seconds in, six seconds out. Longer exhales lower arousal and keep your legs primed to react.
- Pick a single intent word before each point. Examples: drive, body, line. Intent quiets the brain’s search for perfect and replaces it with specific.
- Decide the pattern before you bounce the ball. For example: ad court, body serve, inside in first ball. If the serve misses, copy the pattern with a second serve to the backhand hip and the same first ball.
- Grade intent, not outcome. After points, ask whether you chose the right play and committed. The score will lag the habit for a few matches. Stick with the process.
Coaches and parents can help by charting intent compliance. If he stays above 70 percent on the chosen pattern for a set, the new identity is taking root even if the set is tight. For more pressure-specific prep, see our two-week tiebreak training guide.
What to watch at the United Cup from January 2 to 11, 2026
The United Cup will reveal whether the plan is ready for center court in Melbourne. You do not need access to proprietary data. You can see most of this with a notebook or a basic charting app.
Serve and first strike
- Average first serve speed rises into the 195 to 205 kilometers per hour zone without a big drop in first serve percentage. If his percentage holds near 62 percent or better, that is green.
- Location variety is clear. From the ad court, body serves appear regularly, especially at 30 all and deuce.
- First ball depth improves. After the serve, at least two of every three first balls land past the service line.
Return and patterns
- On second serve returns, he steps inside the baseline more often and drives to the backhand body. Watch if he earns more short replies or forced errors in the first two hits.
- Early backhand down-the-line changes against Sinner-like opponents. You will know it is working if his opponent starts missing wide to the backhand side.
Rally length and court position
- A higher share of points end in four shots or fewer. If de Minaur still wins long rallies yet starts winning more short ones, the balance is right.
- On the heat map, his average contact point on forehands inches closer to the baseline. That means he is taking time away, not giving it.
Pressure habits
- On break points against, body first serves show up. On break points for, second serve returns are driven, not chipped.
If these indicators move in the right direction at the United Cup, the pattern will carry into the Australian Open draw.
Matchup specifics: actionable plans for Sinner and Alcaraz
Against Jannik Sinner
- Serve body from the ad side to limit the two-hander’s early take. Follow with a forehand drive back behind him. Sinner excels when the ball gets outside his strike zone. Make him hit from his rib cage.
- Change direction down the line early with the backhand. One line change per early rally keeps him honest. If he starts leaning cross-court, the line becomes a high percentage play.
- Vary height into the backhand half court. Interleave knee-high slices with lower, heavy forehands. The goal is to disrupt rhythm, not to slice for time.
Against Carlos Alcaraz
- Avoid telegraphing wide serves that invite a forehand run-around. Mix T and body to the backhand. Treat the wide deuce serve as a surprise, not a staple.
- Keep the ball out of the forehand strike zone during neutral rallies. That means deeper to the backhand hip or jammed at the body. Many players aim at the backhand corner. Aim at the person instead.
- Be selective with drop shots. Use them only from a dominant position when Alcaraz is at least a step behind the baseline and leaning back.
Training menu coaches can steal this week
Here are practical drills that translate the plan from the gym to the court.
- Serve plus one ladders: four balls per rep. Serve to a taped T or body target. Feed a first ball. Then two live balls with the same shape. Score three points if the first ball lands past the service line, two if it lands on it, one if short. Race to 30.
- Rotational power circuit: three rounds of medicine ball scoop tosses, cable woodchops, and lateral bound to forehand drive. The focus is hip lead, torso follow, arm last.
- Return front foot takeoff: toss simulation with a coach lifting the ball. Player starts with heels light, then small pre-hop forward at toss, land on front foot, drive the return through the backhand body target. Ten reps each side.
- Backhand line clinic: live cross-court backhands where any ball that lands in the center lane earns the right to change line. The intent is not risky winners, but fast, early line changes that pin the opponent.
For players and parents, OffCourt.app can build a simple version of this program with daily sequences that fit around school and training. Off-court training is the most underused lever in tennis. OffCourt unlocks it with personalized physical and mental programs built from how you actually play.
How to measure progress between now and Melbourne 2026
Set small, objective targets for the next ten practice days and for United Cup matches.
- First serve speed floor: at least half of first serves reach 195 kilometers per hour without a first serve percentage below 60 percent.
- Second serve aggression: at least one second serve to the body on every deuce and ad game that reaches 30 all or later.
- First ball depth: two of every three first balls after the serve land beyond the service line.
- Second serve return intent: drive at least 70 percent of second serve returns at the opponent’s backhand hip.
- Early line changes: attempt at least one backhand down-the-line change by the third shot in each return game.
These targets are specific, measurable, and aligned with the goal of taking time away from Sinner and Alcaraz rather than waiting for their mistakes.
What success looks like in Melbourne 2026
If the power project is working, you will see shorter holds, more cheap points, and fewer rallies where de Minaur is pinned behind the baseline. You will also see a different body language at pressure moments. He will bounce into returns, not back away. He will call body serves on big points and live with the result. His misses will be strong and long, not soft and short.
Even without immediate wins against Sinner or Alcaraz, the right signals matter. A narrow loss with a higher first serve speed floor, more quick points, and more controlled aggression is a step he can build on during the season. The key is to keep grading intent and execution, not just the scoreboard.
The closer
De Minaur has already figured out how to move like the wind. This summer is about making the wind carry weight. If the serve gets a tier heavier, the forehand drives lower and deeper, and the return patterns commit to proactive intent, he will force Sinner and Alcaraz to play a different sport for stretches of the match. The United Cup is the first proof point. The Australian Open is the real test. Coaches, players, and parents can borrow his blueprint now. Pick one serve target, one plus one pattern, and one mental cue, and track them for two weeks. If you want a ready-made plan that adapts to your own data and match film, try a personalized program through OffCourt and bring the same power project to your game.